June Westside Market Update

The supply of Westside detached homes in June was 745, up 2.5% from 727 in May and down 11% compared to 840 in June 2018. 
Westside detached home sales this June decreased 28% from May (60 v 83) and were down 20% compared to 75 sales in June 2018. Sales are down 58% from the 10 year June average of 142 sales. 
Months of Supply, (MOS) was up 42% from last month to 12.4 and up 11% from 11.2 in June 2018. (Usually a balanced market is in the range between 4-7 MOS with prices rising below 4 MOS and falling above 7 MOS). The average detached home price increased 2.3% to $3.27M and the median price increased 1% to $2.87M. However the price increases are not sustainable.  If demand stays low, MOS will stay high and we should see downward pressure on prices. Current prices are still down 28% on average & 25% on median from the peak in 2017.
The highest sale price for a Westside detached home in June was $8.16M. It was on the market for 601 days before it sold. The lowest price was $1.68M. It was on the market for 297 days before it sold. Of the 60 June sales, 3 received the asking price or more and 57 sold below the asking price. 
Westside apartment supply remained basically unchanged in June (1674 v. 1687) but this is up 40% from the 1192 listings we had in June 2018. At the same time, demand decreased 20% (254 sales v. 319 sales in May) and this is down 14% from 294 sales in June 2018.
The result is MOS in June is up 25% to 6.6 from 5.3 in May and up 63% from 4.1 last June 2018.
The average price increased 1% to $868K v. $860K in May but was down 8% from June 2018. The median price decreased 1% to $711K from $720K in May and is down 11% from last June. Both average and median prices are down by 28% & 19% from the peak of $1.199M and $880K in January 2018.

Westside townhouse supply was unchanged this June (337 v. 338) from May but that's up 21% from 279 in June 2018. Demand in June is down 26% to 41 sales from 55 in May and down from 50 sales last June 2018.
With supply unchanged and demand down, the current MOS increased to 8.2 from 6.1 in May.That is an increase of 47% from 5.6 in June 2018.
Townhouse average prices decreased 3% in June ($1.28 v $1.31K) and were down 3% from $1.31M last June 2018. Median prices decreased 5% to $1.2M from $1.265M in May and are down 4% from $1.252M in June 2018. 

Detached, Attached and Apartments on the west side are for the most part still experiencing price reductions and that is creating good buying opportunities. Many buyers continue holding off in anticipation of further declines in 2019.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region dropped 14.4% to 2077 this June from 2,425 sales in June 2018. June sales were 34.7% below the 10-year June sales Average.
The total number of properties currently offered on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is up 25.3% from June 2018 to 14,968. This is up 1.9% from last month.
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2019 is 13.9%.
Downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark for a sustained period, while upward pressure occurs when it surpasses 20% over several months.
Metro Vancouver home sales in June are the lowest in 19 years. Currently, most westside homes are selling well below assessed value and the new lower assessments for July2/19 will be established soon so it will be interesting to see how much lower the BC Assessment Authority pegs them.

There continues to be a gap in expectations between the buyers and sellers as sellers are striving to achieve prices not seen since 2017 while buyers are waiting as prices continue to soften. The new assessed values may help sellers see the new pricing reality and encourage buyers to get offers on paper.
I agree with Real Estate Board president Ashley Smith who said that Government policy continues to hinder home sales activity. The federal governments mortgage stress test has reduced buyer's purchasing power by about 20%, which is causing entry level buyers to struggle to secure financing. Suppressing home sales through government policy not only reduces the number of sales, it also harms the job market, decreases economic growth and creates pent up demand all of which are negative outcomes and contrary to the stated goal of creating affordable housing.

Please call me at any time for a considered response to any and all of your real estate questions.

Best regards,