July 2019 Westside Market Update

The supply of Westside detached homes in July was 697, down 6.4% from 745 in June and down 13% compared to 840 in June 2018. 
Westside detached home sales this July increased 30% from June (78 v 60) and were up 50% compared to 52 sales in July 2018. Sales are down 28% from the 10 year July average of 109 sales. 
Months of Supply, (MOS) was down 28% from last month to 8.9 and down 42% from 15.5 in July 2018. (Usually a balanced market is in the range between 4-7 MOS with prices rising below 4 MOS and falling above 7 MOS). The average detached home price increased 3.7% to $3.39M and the median price increased 5% to $3.025M. If demand stays low, MOS will stay high and that usually creates downward pressure on prices. Current prices are still down 25% on average & 21% on median from the peak in 2017.
The highest sale price for a Westside detached home in July was $12.98M. It was on the market for 332 days before it sold. The lowest price was $1.52M. It was on the market for 22 days before it sold. Of the 78 June sales, 6 received the asking price or more and 72 sold below the asking price. 
Westside apartment supply decreased 8% in July (1542 v. 1674) but this is up 30% from the 1192 listings we had in July 2018. At the same time, demand increased 39% 353 sales v. 254 sales in June) and this is up 20% from 294 sales in July 2018.
The result is MOS in July is down 34% to 4.4 from 6.6 in June and up 8% from 4.1 last July 2018.
The average price increased 1% to $877K in July v. $868K in June and was down 5% from July 2018. The median price increased 6% to $750K from $711K in June and is down 3.2% from last July. Average and median prices are down by 27% & 15% from the peak of $1.199M and $880K in January 2018.

Westside townhouse supply decreased 7% this July (314 v. 337) from June but that's up 27% from 247 in July 2018. Demand in July is up 37% to 56 sales from 41 in June and up from 48 sales last July 2018.
With supply down and demand up, current MOS decreased to 5.6 from 8.2 in June. That is an increase of 9% from 5.1 in July 2018.
Townhouse average prices were relatively unchanged in July ($1.282M) and were down 9% from $1.4M last July 2018. Median prices decreased 1% to $1.18M from $1.2M in June and are down 13% from $1.37M in July 2018. Both average and median prices are down by 28% & 22% from the peak of $1.8M and $1.5M in January 2018.

Detached, Attached and Apartments on the west side are still  priced well below the peak and that is creating good buying opportunities. Detached home prices have been creeping up since Feb. this year and are now 14 & 11% higher on average & median. Many house buyers continue holding off in anticipation of further declines in 2019 but those declines have not been happening. 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region increased 23.5% to 2557 this July from 2,070 sales in July 2018. July sales were 7.8% below the 10-year July sales Average.
The total number of properties currently offered on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is up 17.3% from July 2018 to 14,240. This is down 4.9% from last month.
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2019 is 18%.
Downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark for a sustained period, while upward pressure occurs when it surpasses 20% over several months.

There continues to be a gap in expectations between the buyers and sellers as many sellers do not need to sell and are loath to do so at a low price while buyers are waiting for prices to soften more. The new assessed values may help sellers see the new pricing reality and encourage buyers to get offers on paper before prices rise in earnest.
Government policy continues to hinder home sales activity. The federal governments mortgage stress test has reduced buyer's purchasing power by about 20%, which is causing entry level buyers to struggle to secure financing. Suppressing home sales through government policy not only reduces the number of sales, it also harms the job market, decreases economic growth and creates pent up demand all of which are negative outcomes and contrary to the stated goal of creating affordable housing.

Please call me (604 731 0370) at any time for a considered response to any and all of your real estate questions.

Best regards,